Recent Posts by John Goltermann

A Rough Quarter

The 2nd quarter 2022 was challenging as just about every asset class declined amidst rising interest rates, declining market liquidity and recession fears. Much of the challenge for investors this year can be tied back to the Federal Reserve having encouraged and fueled a speculative bubble seeded during the Covid pandemic — and one where speculators got carried away. Bubbles always eventually end because markets have a way of purging excesses and misguided beliefs.
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Winds of Change are Blowin’

The price of every investment reflects a consensus expectation about the future. Sometimes those expectations are formed more through fundamental analysis, and sometimes it is largely behavioral.
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The Fed, Inflation, Indexes and What is Really Happening

2021 was a great year for investors, but a difficult one for everyday life. Because of COVID-19 and other challenges, the Federal Reserve has been heavily intervening in markets. This has lifted asset prices, but the attendant inflation has now significantly harmed the working class, retirees and the poor. That makes it much more difficult and unlikely for the Fed to continue being reckless.
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An Uneventful Quarter

The 3rd quarter ended up being largely uneventful in terms of returns, but we saw a pickup in volatility in late September and broad price declines — as renewed fear crept into credit markets about possible contagion related to the collapse of Evergrande, a Chinese property developer. For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%,…
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