Recent Posts by John Goltermann

Winds of Change are Blowin’

The price of every investment reflects a consensus expectation about the future. Sometimes those expectations are formed more through fundamental analysis, and sometimes it is largely behavioral. Since the Federal Reserve began heavily intervening in markets in the late 1990s (to inject liquidity and suppress the price of credit), market prices have been determined largely by behavior. Not fundamentals. Investor (mis)behavior has brought us performance chasing, high frequency trading, excess speculation, multiple bubbles, nasty recessions, then inflation, and now tightening financial conditions amidst inflation. These are precarious times indeed for investors. Rising rates and tightening conditions have had and will continue to have an effect on investment prices across the board. This month’s commentary provides Highgate’s perspective on where the risks and opportunities lay in this environment, and those are NOT reflected in how the vast majority of advisor position for their clients.
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The Fed, Inflation, Indexes and What is Really Happening

2021 was a great year for investors, but a difficult one for everyday life. Because of Covid-19 and other challenges, the Federal Reserve has been heavily intervening in markets. This has lifted asset prices, but the attendant inflation has now significantly harmed the working class, retirees and the poor. That makes it much more difficult and unlikely for the Fed to continue being reckless. Most US stock index returns were strong in 2021, but a lot has been happening below the surface that tells a different story and deserves your attention. This quarter’s letter highlights some of the elements important to today’s investors, especially those who are still positioned in yesterday’s stock winners. If your portfolio holds a lot of the popular stocks that drove the market higher last year, or that trade at high prices relative to sales or earnings, it is time to reconsider your investment strategy and do some significant repositioning.
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An Uneventful Quarter

The 3rd quarter ended up being largely uneventful in terms of returns, but we saw a pickup in volatility in late September and broad price declines — as renewed fear crept into credit markets about possible contagion related to the collapse of Evergrande, a Chinese property developer. For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%,…
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Why Value Investing is Harder than Growth Investing, but a Better Way to Invest

"When things are easy, I hate it." — Ernest Shackleton “Optics” are an important phenomenon in the investment advisory business. How things look from the outside matters to advisors and, oftentimes, to their customers. Many decisions are made with respect to optics -- because a carefully cultivated image and reputation of an advisory business can…
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